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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."